Hurricanes,typhoons and cyclones are becoming stronger, according to a new NOAA study

根据美国国家海洋和大气管理局(NOAA)的一项新研究，飓风、台风和气旋正变得越来越强

(CNN)It is becoming increasingly evident that hurricanes, typhoons, and tropical cyclones worldwide are becoming stronger and potentially more deadly as the globe warms due to the climate crisis, according to a new study.

（CNN）一项新的研究表明，随着气候危机导致全球变暖，全球范围内的飓风、台风和热带气旋正变得越来越强，潜在的致命威胁也越来越大。

The study, released on Monday by researchers at the University of Wisconsin in Madison and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), looked at nearly 40 years of satellite data of global storms.

周一，位于麦迪逊的威斯康辛大学和美国国家海洋和大气管理局(NOAA)的研究人员公布了这项基于近40年来全球风暴卫星数据的研究。

Researchers found that the probability of storms reaching major hurricane status (category 3 or above on the Saffir-Simpson scale with winds in excess of 110 mph or higher), increased decade after decade.

研究人员发现，风暴达到飓风级别（萨菲尔-辛普森等级的3级或以上，风速超过110英里/小时或更高）的概率，年复一年地增加。

"The change is about 8% per decade," Jim Kossin, author of the study, told CNN. "In other words, during its lifetime, a hurricane is 8% more likely to be a major hurricane in this decade compared to the last decade."

该研究的作者吉姆·科辛告诉CNN：“每十年约变化8%。换句话说，在它的生命周期中，与过去十年相比，飓风在这十年成为主要飓风的可能性增加了8%。”

The new research builds upon previous studies that showed a likely increase in stronger storms as global oceans had warmed, but the data did not go back far enough to confidently asses the increase was due to man-made global warming and not natural cycles that can span decades. The latest findings add another 11 years to the data set, which allows for statistically significant trends to become clear.

这项新研究建立在先前研究的基础上，之前的研究表明，随着全球海洋变暖，更强的风暴可能会增加，但是，这些数据并没有回溯到足够远，因此无法确定这一增长是由于人为的全球变暖，而不是可能持续几十年的自然周期。最新的发现使数据集又增加了11年，这使得统计上显著的趋势变得清晰起来。

"The signals really start to emerge beyond the internal climate variability noise when you look at (approximately) 40 years of data as opposed to their earlier study which looked at (approximately) 25 years of data," Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach, who was not involved in this study, told CNN in an email interview.

“当你看到(大约)40年的数据，而不是他们之前研究的（大约）25年的数据时，信号才真正开始出现，超越了内部气候变化的影响。”科罗拉多州立大学的飓风研究员菲尔·克劳斯巴赫没有参与这项研究，他在接受CNN的邮件采访时表示。

Kossin and his team's research spanned the globe, showing that storms across the world are becoming stronger and thus more destructive, as the higher-end of the scale storms produce a disproportionate amount of damage and deaths.

科辛和他的团队的研究遍及全球，研究表明，世界各地的风暴正变得越来越强，破坏性也变得更大，更高级别的暴风雨造成了不成比例的损失和死亡。

"Almost all of the damage and mortality caused by hurricanes is done by major hurricanes (category 3 to 5)," Kossin said. "Increasing the likelihood of having a major hurricane will certainly increase this risk."

科辛说：“几乎所有由飓风造成的破坏和死亡都是由大型飓风造成的（3至5级飓风）。更大的飓风发生的可能性肯定会增加这种风险。”

The study reveals that global warming has increased sea surface temperature in regions where tropical cyclones form. The combination of these warm temperatures along with changes in atmospheric conditions, have allowed storms to more easily reach higher intensities.

研究表明，全球变暖使热带气旋形成地区的海面温度升高。这些温暖的温度加上大气条件的变化，使得风暴更容易达到更高的强度。

Super Cyclone Amphan strengthens to new record

超强气旋安攀加强至新记录

A current example of what the study says is happening more frequently can be found in the Bay of Bengal, where Super Cyclone Amphan has reached the top of the scale with winds equivalent to a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

这项研究最新的一个例子发生在孟加拉湾，这里的超级气旋安攀已经达到了最高等级，其风力相当于萨菲尔-辛普森等级的5级飓风。

The storm reached sustained winds of 270 kph (165 mph) on Monday, making it the strongest storm on record in the Bay of Bengal, according to data from the US Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

根据美国联合台风预警中心的数据，周一，风暴达到了每小时270公里（每小时165英里）的持续风速，使其成为孟加拉湾有记录以来最强的风暴。

"Sea surface temperatures are much warmer than normal in the Bay of Bengal right now," Klotzbach said. Warmer ocean temperatures are one of the main ingredients the new study pointed to in explaining the observed increase in storm strength.

克劳斯巴赫说:“现在孟加拉湾的海面温度比正常情况下要高得多。”海洋温度升高是这项新研究用来解释观测到的风暴强度增加的主要因素之一。

Interestingly, this was one of the few locations on Earth where the authors did not see increased storm intensity.

有趣的是，这是地球上少数几个作者没有看到风暴强度增加的地方之一。

"The trend we found is not very prominent in the Northern Indian Ocean, but that's mostly because the data are so sparse there and it's difficult for trends to be identified above all the noise," Kossin said.

科辛说:“我们发现的这一趋势在印度洋北部不是很明显，但这主要是因为那里的数据非常稀少，很难在所有的影响中识别出趋势。”

"I suspect if they extended the study to include 2018 and 2019, it would become significant," Klotzbach said. "Last year was absolutely crazy in the North Indian Ocean, especially in the Arabian Sea."

“我怀疑如果他们将研究扩展到2018年和2019年，它将变得非常重要。”克劳斯巴赫说，“去年在北印度洋绝对是疯了,尤其是在阿拉伯海。”

Evidence shows global warming is making tropical cyclones stronger

有证据表明，全球变暖正在使热带气旋变得更强

Finding trends in global tropical cyclones has traditionally suffered from inconsistent data records going back several decades, said Ryan Maue, a private industry meteorologist not involved in the recent research.

没有参与近期研究的气象学家瑞安·毛伊说，寻找全球热带气旋的趋势通常会受到几十年前不一致的数据记录的影响。

Scientists have long theorized that warmer oceans from human warming of the climate would likely result in stronger hurricanes and typhoons and climate models also show an increase going forward, but observations had not conclusively shown the increase thus far, mainly because of inconsistent and short data sets.

长期以来，科学家们一直从理论上认为，人类活动导致的气候变暖导致海洋变暖，可能会导致更强的飓风和台风，气候模型也显示了未来的上升趋势，但迄今为止，观测结果并没有最终显示出这种上升趋势，这主要是由于数据集不一致而且较短。

"Here, the authors apply an objective technique on four decades of satellite data to create a consistent record of global tropical cyclone intensity," Maue said.

“在这里，作者对40年来的卫星数据应用了一种客观的技术，以创建一个全球热带气旋强度的一致记录。”毛伊说。

"Their results are consistent with the theory that increasing sea-surface temperatures are indeed increasing the intensity (but not frequency) of the strongest storms of at least major hurricane strength."

“他们的研究结果与一个理论相一致，即不断升高的海洋表面温度确实增加了最强烈风暴的强度(但不是频率)，至少是主要飓风的强度。”

While human-caused warming is likely fueling the increase, there are also natural cycles at play as well, which can increase or decrease storm frequency and intensity varying from basin to basin and from year to year, such as we see with El Niño and La Niña.While human-caused warming is likely fueling the increase, there are also natural cycles at play as well, which can increase or decrease storm frequency and intensity varying from basin to basin and from year to year, such as we see with El Niño and La Niña.

虽然人为造成的气候变暖很可能助长了这种增长，但也有自然循环在起作用，它可以增加或减少风暴的频率和强度，年复一年，就像我们看到的厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜现象。

"Like all aspects of climate, there is an element of natural variability at play," Kossin said. "Our study does not formally disentangle the natural causes from the human-activity causes, and the trends we found are most likely due to a combination of both."

“就像气候的所有方面一样，有一个自然变化的因素在起作用。”科辛说，“我们的研究并没有正式将自然原因与人类活动原因分开，我们发现的趋势很可能是两者的结合。”

While the exact causes are complicated, Maue said, this research increases confidence in climate models that show that global warming is, and will continue in the future, to increase tropical cyclone intensity.

毛伊说，虽然确切的原因很复杂，但这项研究增强了人们对气候模型的信心，这些模型表明，全球变暖正在并将在未来继续加剧热带气旋的强度。

原文链接：https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/18/weather/climate-change-hurricane-tropical-cyclone/index.html

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